[Path of Transportation Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction under the Background of Green Development Transformation]

Driven by the dual-carbon goals and the "Beautiful China" policy, green development and transformation have become central to the national strategy. As a major source of carbon emissions, the transportation sector's carbon emission issues are particularly prominent. Existing research on transportation carbon reduction predominantly focuses on the impacts of adjusting transportation structure （ATS） and adjusting energy structure （AES） on carbon emissions, while studies addressing industrial structure adjustments and urban green space enhancement are relatively scarce. This study utilizes Beijing as the research object and constructs a system dynamics model that encompasses economic, demographic, energy, and environmental factors. By establishing four emission reduction scenarios-adjusting industrial structure （AIS）, ATS, AES, and improving urban greenery （IUG）-the potential for emission reductions in each scenario and their combinations is evaluated. The results indicate that in the single scenario, the energy-saving and carbon-reduction effects of the AIS scenario were the most significant, with energy-saving and emission-reduction rates of 6.50% and 6.69%, respectively. In the double combination scenarios, AIS and AES combined the best energy-saving and carbon-reduction effects, with energy-saving and emission-reduction rates of 11.20% and 11.36%, respectively. When all four scenarios were implemented comprehensively, the energy-saving and emission-reduction rates reached 15.00% and 16.24%, respectively. This study revealed the synergistic effects of adjusting industrial structure, transportation structure, and energy structure, as well as improving urban greenery in promoting green development and transformation within the transportation sector, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for achieving carbon reduction targets in this sector.