[Land Use Optimization and Carbon Storage Assessment in Guangzhou City for Carbon Neutrality]

Regional carbon emissions are closely related to land use composition and its pattern. Optimizing the spatial distribution of land use is pivotal for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing carbon sequestration, thereby contributing to the achievement of the "carbon neutrality" goal in 2060. This study established a future land use simulation （FLUS） model of Guangzhou based on the land use change in 2015-2020 and optimally allocated the land uses in Guangzhou using the carbon emission coefficient method and the linear programming model, which was triggered by the goal of carbon neutrality. The integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was employed to assess the carbon emission and carbon storage of land uses in 2015-2020 and the optimized land use pattern for 2060 in Guangzhou. Adaptive strategies and suggestions were proposed to achieve carbon neutrality in Guangzhou. The findings are as follows： ① During the period of 2015-2020, land use changes in Guangzhou were characterized by the outward and infill expansion of urban land, occupying the surrounding farmland and ecological land. This resulted in a reduction of 2.4×10⁶ t carbon emissions and 1.26×10⁵ t carbon stock, with 89.02% of the land achieving carbon balance. ② Land use optimization under the 2060 carbon neutrality goal could greatly restrict land use conversion. The built-up land could increase by 17 038 hm², predominantly through extension, while ecological land would increase by 6 521.68 hm², mainly through the integration of small patches. Farmland would decrease by 23 446 hm². ③ With the carbon neutrality target, the 2060 land use could reduce net carbon emission, accounting for 5.5% of that in 2015, and bolster carbon stock by an additional 1.12×10⁵ t. The spatial effects of carbon emissions could be weakened, and 96.89% of the land would achieve carbon balance. This study contributes a robust scientific foundation, using Guangzhou as a reference towards a low-carbon urbanization, thereby promoting the attainment of carbon neutrality.