[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Kaidu River Basin Based on PLUS-InVEST Model]

Exploring the relationship between land use types and ecosystem carbon stocks under the "dual-carbon" strategy is critical for managing carbon emissions in the arid regions of Northwest China. For this study, the PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of land use and carbon stock in the Kaidu River Basin. Twelve driving factors were incorporated to predict the trends of land use and carbon stock by 2030 under three scenarios： natural development, ecological protection, and economic development. The results are as follows： ① From 2000 to 2020, grassland and unused land dominated land use types, comprising over 80% of the total area. While grassland and water areas declined, the arable, forest, construction, and unused lands increased. ② The total carbon stock in the Kaidu River Basin grew steadily from 2000 to 2020. The total carbon stocks in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 47 258.88×10⁴ t, 47 311.30×10⁴ t, and 47 318.05×10⁴ t, respectively, with grassland being the main source of carbon. Spatially, carbon stocks were higher in the north and lower in the south. The land use shift directly affected carbon stocks, with a significant increase of 415.80×10⁴ t due to the conversion of unused land to grassland. However, this also caused a loss of 667.98×10⁴ t in carbon stocks. ③ Projections for 2030 showed significant differences in carbon stocks across the three scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the carbon stock was projected to rise to 47 398.41×10⁴ t, mainly due to the conversion of unused land to cropland with higher carbon stock density. The ecological protection scenario was more favorable for sustainable carbon stock development in the basin. The findings provide a theoretical basis for regional carbon emission management and sustainable land use planning.