[Carbon Storage in Oasis of Arid Regions and Its Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios]

The change in land use type is the main factor driving changes in carbon stock. Accounting for its change can reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics and trend of carbon stock, which can help attain the "dual-carbon" target and territorial spatial planning. Taking the Ebinur Lake Basin as the study area, we analyzed the land use change characteristics from 1990 to 2020 and estimated the carbon stock in the study area in the recent 30a by using the InVEST model. Subsequently, simulation and prediction of carbon stock changes in the study area in 2030 were completed based on the simulation and prediction of carbon stock changes in the study area in 2030 by using the PLUS model for four scenarios： natural development, cropland protection, ecological preservation, and rapid economic development. The results showed that： ① From 1990 to 2020, the proportion of construction and arable land in the study area steadily grew, while the share of unutilized land steadily declined. The area changes of other land categories showed a reversal around 2010, marking it as the inflection point. ② The overall trend of carbon stock from 1990 to 2020 increased and then decreased, with a net increase of 6.338×10⁶ t in the last 30 a. ③ Compared to that in 2020, the carbon stock in the cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios in 2030 rose further, whereas it decreased in the natural development and rapid economic growth scenarios. The ecological protection scenario showed the largest increase of 0.220×10⁶ t, while the rapid economic growth scenario shows the largest decrease of 0.089×10⁶ t. Thus, the ecological protection scenario significantly boosted the carbon stock in the study area compared to that in the other scenarios. According to the correlation analysis, the four scenarios were similar in spatial distribution, with the high high-concentration values accounting for 16.73%-17.36% of the study area, mainly concentrated in the north, west, and east. The low-low concentration values accounted for 21.91%-22.28% of the study area, mainly distributed in the central, north-central, and southern parts of the country. The results of this study provide data support for enhancing and improving environmental protection and ecosystem carbon stocks in the study area.