Rumor management in public health: a system dynamics analysis based on social trust

With the rapid development of digital society and the Internet, public health systems are increasingly confronted with novel phenomena and emergent challenges originating from cyberspace. Single medical interventions often prove insufficient to address the complex and multifaceted nature of contemporary health issues, necessitating the integration of interdisciplinary expertise.

This study focuses on the propagation mechanisms of online rumors during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting their intricate interactions with social trust. Using a system dynamics approach, a comprehensive "generation-diffusion-dissipation" model of rumors was constructed, revealing the differentiated role of social trust across stages.

Trust deficits create fertile ground for rumor emergence, while the impersonation and exploitation of trust facilitate rapid rumor diffusion beyond the bounds of rational skepticism. Conversely, trust reconstruction serves as a critical driver for rumor dissipation and the restoration of social cognition. The spread of rumors is influenced not only by information veracity but also by the embedding of social relationships, emotional mobilization, and manipulation of trust pathways.

Effective rumor governance in public health systems requires a shift from reactive "post hoc debunking" toward proactive "preemptive prevention," encompassing transparent information disclosure, interactive communication mechanisms, targeted interventions against "trust hijacking," and trust reconstruction strategies guided by social-psychological restoration. This study employs a system dynamics approach to elucidate the mechanisms of rumor propagation while empirically validating the dynamic role of trust within the governance system. It not only offers a new analytical framework for understanding the evolution of trust under digital social conditions but also provides strategic insights for enhancing the governance capacity of public health systems in responding to rumors.