Thyroid Cancer Burden in China: 1990 to 2021 Trends and 15-Year Projections Against Global Trends

To analyze the temporal trends and turning points of thyroid cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and project future incidence and mortality to 2035.

Cross-sectional study.

Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database.

Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, and associations between cancer burden and sociodemographic indices were explored through frontier analysis. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was applied to project future disease burden through 2035.

In 2021, China reported 48,104 new thyroid cancer cases and 7692 deaths. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and prevalence rate (ASPR) increased markedly (average annual percentage change [AAPC]: 2.98% and 2.25%, respectively), whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) declined (AAPC: -0.65% and -0.56%). A pivotal shift occurred around 2005: while ASMR and ASDR continued to decrease in both China and globally, China's ASIR and ASPR accelerated further, contrasting with a global deceleration. Projections indicate that China's ASIR for thyroid cancer is expected to increase more rapidly than the global average over the next 15 years.

The thyroid cancer burden in China is characterized by rapidly rising incidence and stagnating mortality decline, a pattern distinct from global trends and likely driven by intensified detection. This escalating burden necessitates public health strategies focused on optimizing screening practices and managing overdiagnosis.