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Published on: June 10, 2025
HbA1c variability and risk of incident heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Guo Mujiafu Qiao Longbatu1, La Xinamujila2, Bao Burie3
1Cardiology Department, International Mongolian Hospital of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot, China; College of Mongolian Medicine, Inner Mongolia Minzu University, Tongliao, China.
Insights
High visit-to-visit variability in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is linked to an increased risk of heart failure (HF). Maintaining stable glycemic control is crucial for patients with type 2 diabetes to reduce HF incidence.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Endocrinology
- Metabolic Diseases
Background:
- Visit-to-visit variability in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) indicates glycemic control instability.
- This instability may contribute to cardiovascular complications, including heart failure (HF).
- The precise relationship between HbA1c variability and incident HF risk requires further elucidation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and the risk of incident HF in adults.
- To synthesize evidence from multiple studies on this topic.
- To highlight the prognostic significance of glycemic control stability.
Main Methods:
- A systematic meta-analysis was conducted using data from PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science.
- Included studies were observational or post-hoc analyses examining HbA1c variability and HF risk.
- Random-effects models were used to pool hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Main Results:
- Nine studies comprising 342,123 participants were analyzed.
- High HbA1c variability was significantly associated with an increased risk of HF (pooled HR = 1.78).
- Consistent results were observed in sensitivity and subgroup analyses, with a stronger association in prospective cohorts.
Conclusions:
- Greater visit-to-visit HbA1c variability is associated with a higher risk of incident heart failure.
- Stable long-term glycemic control is important for reducing HF risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes.
- HbA1c variability serves as a potential prognostic marker for cardiovascular complications.
Abstract:
Visit-to-visit variability in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) reflects long-term instability in glycemic control, potentially contributing to cardiovascular complications. However, the association between HbA1c variability and heart failure (HF) risk remains unclear. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the relationship between HbA1c variability and the risk of incident HF in adults. A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science was conducted to identify relevant studies. Observational studies and post-hoc analyses of clinical trials evaluating the association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and incident HF were included. Random-effects models were employed to pool hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for potential heterogeneity. A total of nine studies (n = 342,123) were included in the analysis. Overall, high HbA1c variability was associated with an increased risk of HF (pooled HR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.39-2.27, p < 0.001; I² = 87%). Sensitivity analyses restricted to patients with type 2 diabetes (HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.35-2.22), high-quality studies (HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.32-2.50), or studies adjusting for mean HbA1c (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.31-2.16) produced consistent results. Subgroup analyses indicated a stronger association in prospective cohorts (HR = 2.51) compared to retrospective or post-hoc studies (p for subgroup difference < 0.001). Meta-regression analysis revealed no significant modifying effects of age, sex, follow-up duration, or study quality (p all > 0.05). In conclusion, greater visit-to-visit HbA1c variability may be associated with an increased risk of incident HF, underscoring the prognostic importance of maintaining stable long-term glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes.
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