HbA1c variability and risk of incident heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Guo Mujiafu Qiao Longbatu1, La Xinamujila2, Bao Burie3

  • 1Cardiology Department, International Mongolian Hospital of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot, China; College of Mongolian Medicine, Inner Mongolia Minzu University, Tongliao, China.

Biomolecules & Biomedicine
|December 19, 2025
PubMed

Insights

High visit-to-visit variability in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is linked to an increased risk of heart failure (HF). Maintaining stable glycemic control is crucial for patients with type 2 diabetes to reduce HF incidence.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Endocrinology
  • Metabolic Diseases

Background:

  • Visit-to-visit variability in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) indicates glycemic control instability.
  • This instability may contribute to cardiovascular complications, including heart failure (HF).
  • The precise relationship between HbA1c variability and incident HF risk requires further elucidation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and the risk of incident HF in adults.
  • To synthesize evidence from multiple studies on this topic.
  • To highlight the prognostic significance of glycemic control stability.

Main Methods:

  • A systematic meta-analysis was conducted using data from PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science.
  • Included studies were observational or post-hoc analyses examining HbA1c variability and HF risk.
  • Random-effects models were used to pool hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Main Results:

  • Nine studies comprising 342,123 participants were analyzed.
  • High HbA1c variability was significantly associated with an increased risk of HF (pooled HR = 1.78).
  • Consistent results were observed in sensitivity and subgroup analyses, with a stronger association in prospective cohorts.

Conclusions:

  • Greater visit-to-visit HbA1c variability is associated with a higher risk of incident heart failure.
  • Stable long-term glycemic control is important for reducing HF risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes.
  • HbA1c variability serves as a potential prognostic marker for cardiovascular complications.

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