Investigating Early Kinetics in Plasma ctDNA and Peripheral T-cell Receptor Repertoire to Predict Treatment Outcomes

Enrique Sanz-Garcia1,2, Shirin Soleimani1,3, Jeff P Bruce1

  • 1Princess Margaret Cancer Centre , University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.

Abstract

Insights

Early monitoring of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and T cell receptor (TCR) repertoires can predict immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) success in head and neck cancer. These biomarkers may guide timely treatment adjustments for recurrent/metastatic HNSCC patients.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Immunology
  • Biomarker Discovery

Background:

  • Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) targeting the PD-1 axis improves survival in recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC).
  • Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and T cell receptor (TCR) repertoires are emerging biomarkers for predicting ICB response.
  • Early characterization of ctDNA and TCR dynamics may enable timely treatment adjustments before clinical progression.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the utility of simultaneous early monitoring of ctDNA and TCR dynamics for predicting ICB outcomes in R/M HNSCC.
  • To correlate ctDNA and TCR repertoire changes with clinical response, progression-free survival, and overall survival.
  • To identify specific TCR signatures associated with clinical benefit and response to ICB therapy.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective single-center IO-KIN study (NCT04606940) with 15 R/M HNSCC patients treated with nivolumab or pembrolizumab.
  • Collection of 104 blood samples across seven timepoints from baseline to day 29.
  • Analysis of ctDNA using personalized Signatera assay and peripheral TCR repertoires using CapTCR-seq in eight patients.

Main Results:

  • A decline in ctDNA after day 8 correlated with radiological response, longer progression-free survival, and a trend toward improved overall survival.
  • TCR repertoires showed transient diversification between days 8-22, with longer windows in patients with sustained ctDNA decline.
  • An Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-specific TCR signature was identified using GLIPHII and persisted in patients with clinical benefit; additional TCR signatures emerged early and were linked to positive outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Simultaneous early monitoring of ctDNA and TCR dynamics reveals key determinants of ICB outcomes in R/M HNSCC.
  • The transient nature of TCR diversification highlights the importance of precise sample timing for guiding early therapeutic decisions.
  • These findings support the use of ctDNA and TCR dynamics as predictive biomarkers to optimize ICB treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

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