Intraspecific Reaction Norm Variation Controls the Eco-Evolutionary Consequences of Environmental Change

AbstractAs environmental change accelerates globally, understanding concurrent organismal, species, and community responses is increasingly vital. Here, we examine these collective responses by incorporating genotype-specific thermal reaction norms into an eco-evolutionary predator-prey model, allowing us to track simultaneous phenotypic, ecological, and evolutionary responses to environmental change within ecological communities. We show that the reaction norms expressed by genotypes within a population determine how a community switches between different eco-evolutionary outcomes with changes in temperature. We identify how different components of phenotypic variation in thermal reaction norms-environmental (E), additive environmental and genetic ($E+G$), and gene-by-environment interactions ($G\times E$)-influence eco-evolutionary dynamics and outcomes as temperature changes. Our findings underscore how complex eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change ultimately emerge from variation in reaction norms among genotypes, offering new mechanistic insights into environmental impacts on adaptation, the maintenance of phenotypic and genetic variation, and ecological stability, which is crucial for understanding and predicting eco-evolutionary effects of rapid environmental change in the future.