[Return to Work after Vocational Rehabilitation during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Retrospective Cohort Study]

The aim of this study was to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected return to work (RTW) after vocational rehabilitation. Particular attention was paid to whether pandemic-related changes in the likelihood of RTW could be observed overall and in relation to individual vulnerability characteristics.The study was based on administrative data from the German Pension Insurance (n=28,779; 2018-2021). Three cohorts were included in the analysis: a reference cohort (rehabilitation and RTW before the pandemic), pandemic cohort 1 (RTW during the pandemic), and pandemic cohort 2 (rehabilitation and RTW during the pandemic). The probability of RTW was analyzed first descriptively and then again using logistic regression models, with adjustments made for relevant covariates. Additionally, interactions between the cohort variable and vulnerability characteristics (i. e., previous receipt of unemployment benefits I or II) were examined.Descriptive results showed lower RTW rates in both pandemic cohorts compared to the reference cohort. After adjustment, the decline was less pronounced, indicating the importance of individual characteristics and contextual factors - particularly labor market conditions. In the adjusted model, no statistically significant difference remained for pandemic cohort 1 relative to the reference cohort, whereas the gap for pandemic cohort 2 was reduced but not fully eliminated. Interaction analyses further indicated that barriers to RTW were amplified under pandemic conditions: rehabilitees with prior unemployment saw a further decrease in predicted probabilities of RTW in pandemic cohort 2 compared to before the pandemic.Overall, pandemic-related conditions made the transition back to working life after vocational rehabilitation more difficult. Individuals with pre-existing labor market disadvantages were particularly affected, pointing to an intensification of social inequalities under crisis conditions. To counteract such effects in the future, stronger linkages between vocational rehabilitation and labor market integration should be established.