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Evaluating China's carbon neutrality capacity a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis within the SDGs framework
Xiongtian Shi1, Huimiao Zhang2, Jingyang Zhang3
1School of Business Administration and Tourism Management, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China. shixiongtian@stu.ynu.edu.cn.
Scientific Reports
|December 19, 2025
Summary
China's Carbon Neutrality Capacity (CNC) improved from 2011-2022, with carbon removal capacity growing faster. Significant regional disparities persist, requiring targeted policies for equitable development and achieving carbon neutrality goals.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sustainable Development
- Regional Economics
Background:
- China's commitment to carbon neutrality necessitates robust evaluation of its capacity.
- Understanding regional disparities is crucial for effective national climate policy.
- Aligning carbon neutrality efforts with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ensures holistic progress.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate China's Carbon Neutrality Capacity (CNC) from 2011 to 2022.
- To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and regional disparities of CNC.
- To provide policy recommendations for achieving carbon neutrality in alignment with SDGs.
Main Methods:
- Improved entropy-weighted TOPSIS method for CNC assessment.
- Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain, kernel density estimation, and spatial econometric models for analysis.
- Evaluation aligned with SDGs 7, 9, 12, 13, and 15.
Main Results:
- Steady improvement in China's CNC, with carbon removal capacity showing faster growth.
- Significant regional disparities exist, with coastal regions leading and inland areas lagging.
- Spatial analysis revealed high-CNC region concentration and a 'lock-in effect' in low-CNC areas.
Conclusions:
- China's CNC shows positive trends but requires addressing regional inequalities.
- Ecological restoration and carbon capture technologies are key drivers of carbon removal capacity.
- Policy recommendations focus on regional equity, low-carbon innovation, and cross-regional cooperation for SDG-aligned carbon neutrality.
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