Development of a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Simulation Model for Nicotine

Tobacco is a major cause of chronic diseases such as lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease worldwide. Nicotine, the primary psychoactive component in tobacco, is highly addictive and while not the primary driver of such tobacco-related diseases, poses various health risks, particularly those affecting the cardiovascular and pulmonary systems. Although nicotine-based therapies, such as nicotine replacement products, are widely utilized in smoking cessation efforts today, the impact of newer, tobacco delivery systems such as electronic nicotine delivery systems, or ENDS, remains uncertain and warrants continued evaluation. This study aims to develop and validate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) simulation model for nicotine using clinical pharmacokinetic data. The PBPK simulation model for nicotine was developed by incorporating drug-specific and system-specific parameters and by considering the systemic absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of nicotine as well as its overall pharmacokinetic behavior on GastroPlus version 9.9. Validation of the developed PBPK model was performed by comparing predicted and observed plasma concentration-time profiles and pharmacokinetic parameters from clinical studies across multiple routes of administration including intravenous infusion, bolus, and pulmonary inhalation. The resulting model accurately captured plasma nicotine concentrations, with predicted pharmacokinetic parameters (C_max, T_max and AUCs) falling within acceptable ranges of observed values and computational average fold error values. The current model provides a practical tool to translate systemic nicotine exposure across delivery systems, support dose optimization against predefined target exposure, and quantify safety margins, thereby informing safer product design and evidence-based decisions in public-health regulatory science.