Spatial Patterns of Global Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus and Its Potential Risk Assessment for Various Wildlife...

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Virology
• Wildlife Epidemiology
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Peste des Petits Ruminants virus (PPRV) is a highly contagious disease affecting multiple host species, posing a severe threat to wildlife, including endangered populations.
• Uncontrolled PPRV outbreaks can lead to the extinction of vulnerable species, necessitating urgent conservation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the influence of climatic and environmental factors on PPRV transmission dynamics.
• To assess the risk of PPRV infection in wildlife habitats globally.
• To develop a risk assessment method for PPRV cross-species transmission.

Main Methods:

• Integrated global PPRV epidemiological data (n=902) and environmental variables (2014-2024).
• Utilized data from China (2007-2024) for regional analysis.
• Developed a MaxEnt-based PPRV cross-species transmission risk assessment model.

Main Results:

• Identified key climatic drivers: temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, isothermality, mean diurnal range, March precipitation, and warmest month's maximum temperature.
• PPRV global spread shows a banded distribution between 10°N and 50°N, with increasing risk from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Significant threats identified for species including Camelidae, wild Bovidae (Capra, Eudorcas, Gazella), and Cervidae (Hydropotes).

Conclusions:

• Climatic and environmental factors significantly influence PPRV transmission patterns and geographical distribution.
• Urgent need for cross-border cooperation to manage PPRV and protect vulnerable wildlife populations.
• Findings provide a scientific basis for biodiversity conservation and public health initiatives against PPRV.