Global burden and trends of oral disorders in adults aged 60 + (1990-2021) with projections to 2040

This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the global burden of oral disorders in individuals aged 60 + , from 1990 to 2021, with projections through 2040.

Data on the annual prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for oral disorders were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rates, by age, sex, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), were analyzed using estimated annual percentage changes. Projections to 2040 were made using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

In 2021, there were 675.8 million cases and 9.4 million DALYs due to oral disorders in older adults. While age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rates declined globally from 1990 to 2021, significant regional disparities remained. High burdens were observed in Andean Latin America and East Asia, while increasing trends were seen in Tropical Latin America and Eastern Europe. Dental caries and periodontitis were the most common disorders, with edentulism contributing substantially to DALYs. Middle-SDI countries faced the highest burdens. Projections suggest declines in dental caries and periodontitis but an increase in edentulism.

These findings underscore the need for targeted public health policies focusing on prevention, treatment, and equitable access to oral care for aging populations.