Potential Economic Value of Multi-cancer Early Detection Testing Under Differential Cost Trends for Cancer Screening...

Area of Science:

• Health economics
• Oncology
• Medical technology assessment

Background:

• Cancer management costs are rising, while screening costs are stable.
• Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests offer potential for earlier cancer diagnosis.
• Evaluating the economic impact of MCED is crucial given current healthcare cost trends.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the cost-effectiveness and net cost of MCED testing in the US.
• To analyze the influence of differing cost growth rates on MCED economic viability.
• To compare MCED cost-effectiveness from commercial insurance and Medicare perspectives.

Main Methods:

• A hybrid state-transition and decision-tree model was used for lifetime analysis.
• Cost data were sourced from SEER-Medicare, with MCED prices set at $949 or $712.
• Annual cost growth rates (-5% to 10%) were applied to management and screening costs.

Main Results:

• MCED's incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $50,000-$100,000/QALY without cost growth.
• MCED reduced spending when cancer management cost growth exceeded 2-4% (commercial) or 7-8% (Medicare).
• Cost neutrality was reached in 5-10 years if management costs grew faster than MCED costs.

Conclusions:

• MCED testing may offset rising cancer management expenses.
• Improved cost-effectiveness and potential cost neutrality are associated with MCED.
• The economic benefits of MCED are sensitive to relative cost growth rates.