Quantifying Time-Lagged Vegetation Responses to Hydroclimatic Factors in Dam-Influenced Arid Regions Using VAR
Raid Almalki1,2, Mehdi Khaki3, Patricia M Saco3,4
1Department of Geography, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia. c3348452@uon.edu.au.
Environmental Management
|December 23, 2025
Summary
Dam construction in Saudi Arabia significantly delayed vegetation recovery, extending the response lag to hydroclimatic factors from 2-3 months to 4-5 months. This highlights altered ecosystem dynamics and impacts water management in arid regions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Hydrology
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- Dry ecosystem management requires understanding vegetation dynamics, particularly under dam-induced hydrological alterations.
- Arid regions face challenges in ecosystem restoration due to altered water availability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the lagged vegetation responses to hydroclimatic factors in dam-impacted arid basins.
- To quantify the impact of dam construction on vegetation recovery time.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2003-2024 using remote sensing.
- Application of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to assess vegetation dynamics against precipitation, temperature, runoff, and total water storage (TWS).
- Comparison of pre-dam (2003-2009) and post-dam (2010-2024) periods in four Saudi Arabian basins.
Main Results:
- Dam construction significantly increased the lag time for vegetation response to hydroclimatic factors.
- Vegetation response lag extended from 2-3 months pre-dam to 4-5 months post-dam.
- Dams disrupt the natural coupling between hydroclimatic inputs and vegetation growth.
Conclusions:
- Dam-induced hydrological alterations lead to lagged vegetation recovery in arid regions.
- Findings have significant implications for water resource management, irrigation planning, and ecosystem monitoring in dammed basins.
- Time-lag analysis is crucial for guiding dam operations and enhancing ecosystem resilience.
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