Epidemiological Trends and Predictive Modeling of Dengue Fever in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)...

Dengue fever is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases worldwide. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a high-incidence area for dengue fever and a primary source of imported cases in China. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study statistically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of dengue fever in ten ASEAN countries from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze long-term trends, and future trends from 2022 to 2031 were predicted. In 2021, the ASR of dengue fever varied widely among ASEAN countries. Singapore had the highest ASR (8715 cases per 100,000 persons). After 2000, countries, such as Brunei Darussalam, experienced short-term outbreaks. From 1990 to 2021, seven countries showed a significant upward trend in the ASR (AAPC > 0, p < 0.05). Predictions indicate that the Philippines will continue to see a rising ASR from 2022 to 2031, and the dengue fever situation in ASEAN countries is severe and heterogeneous. We recommend differentiated control measures according to the ASR level of the source country in China. The results can support the development of Sino-ASEAN collaborative strategies for dengue fever prevention and control.