Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling

Area of Science:

• Conservation Biology
• Spatial Ecology
• Wildlife Management

Background:

• Jaguars (Panthera onca) face significant threats from human activities, necessitating precise habitat identification for effective conservation strategies.
• Understanding habitat selection is vital for mitigating human-jaguar conflict and ensuring species survival.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model jaguar (Panthera onca) habitat suitability across its historic range using a large-scale dataset.
• To identify key environmental factors influencing jaguar habitat selection and pinpoint critical conservation areas.

Main Methods:

• Utilized GPS telemetry data from 172 jaguars across seven countries, the largest dataset to date.
• Developed multiscale Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) incorporating 15 environmental covariates to predict habitat suitability.
• Validated model performance using AUC and Boyce Index, and correlated predictions with existing density and distribution data.

Main Results:

• Jaguars demonstrated a preference for productive habitats near water sources and actively avoided human-modified landscapes, including areas with high human population density and livestock.
• The habitat suitability model exhibited strong predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.88; Boyce Index = 0.91).
• Identified the Amazon and Mayan Forests as core jaguar strongholds, with additional high-suitability areas in the Pantanal, Gran Chaco, Cerrado, and coastal Mexico.

Conclusions:

• Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and Protected Areas (PAs) encompass a significant portion of suitable habitat, but non-designated lands also hold important suitability, highlighting the need for landscape-level conservation.
• Ecoregion-specific modeling revealed shifting conservation priorities, increasing the relevance of countries like Paraguay, Argentina, and the United States.
• Effective jaguar conservation requires a comprehensive approach that considers both protected areas and broader landscape connectivity, especially in regions like Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.