Experience-driven perceptions misalign with assessed heat risk in the United States

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Public Health
• Risk Perception

Background:

• Extreme heat presents a significant public health risk, with heat-related illnesses and fatalities being largely preventable through behavioral changes.
• Individual perceptions of local heat risks frequently differ from expert evaluations, hindering the adoption of necessary protective behaviors.
• Understanding these perception gaps is crucial for effective public health interventions and climate adaptation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and apply the Risk Analysis - Perception Framework to quantify the alignment between assessed and perceived heat risks across US counties.
• To identify geographic disparities in the divergence between expert-assessed vulnerability and public perception of heat risks.
• To provide an empirical basis for targeted climate risk communication and policy development.

Main Methods:

• Developed the Risk Analysis - Perception Framework to compare assessed risk (using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Heat and Health Index) with perceived risk (derived from a multi-year national survey, 2018-2022).
• Applied the framework to analyze risk perception alignment at the county level across the United States.
• Utilized statistical modeling to analyze factors influencing risk perception divergence.

Main Results:

• Identified substantial misalignments between assessed and perceived heat risks in numerous US counties.
• Highlighted particular disparities in the Pacific Northwest and Appalachia, indicating areas where public perception lags behind expert assessment of heat vulnerability.
• Demonstrated that personal experiences, contextual cues, and cognitive heuristics significantly shape risk perceptions, often leading to underestimation of heat-related dangers.

Conclusions:

• The Risk Analysis - Perception Framework offers a novel method for mapping and understanding discrepancies in heat risk perception.
• Addressing these perception gaps is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of public health communication and adaptation strategies related to extreme heat.
• Systematic risk alignment mapping can guide the development of more effective, geographically tailored interventions to mitigate heat-related health impacts.