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Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics
Albert C Soewongsono1, Ammon Thompson2, Michael J Landis1
1Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, Rebstock Hall, St. Louis, Missouri, 63130, USA.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|December 25, 2025
Summary
Infectious disease spread is complex. Our model shows returning travelers, not foreign visitors, were the primary drivers of early SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe, highlighting the importance of host movement dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Phylogeography
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Infectious diseases spread through host movement, complicating outbreak dynamics.
- Distinguishing between pathogen transmission by visitors versus returning travelers is challenging.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a phylogeographic model incorporating visitor dynamics for pathogen spread.
- To analyze the role of host movement in disease transmission during outbreaks.
Main Methods:
- Developed a phylogeographic model based on an epidemiological compartment model with visitor dynamics.
- Used stationary properties for a statistically accurate and computationally tractable approximation.
- Applied the model to European SARS-CoV-2 infection and travel data.
Main Results:
- SARS-CoV-2 was primarily introduced into new countries by returning travelers early in the European outbreak.
- Visitor dynamics models may underestimate outbreak magnitudes compared to models with indefinite travel.
- Host movement patterns significantly influence disease transmission dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Host movement, specifically returning travelers, plays a crucial role in the early spread of infectious diseases.
- Accurate modeling of host movement dynamics is essential for understanding and controlling pandemics.
- Phylogeographic models incorporating visitor dynamics offer valuable insights into pathogen transmission.
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