Transitions in cigarette and ENDS use in the PATH Study: a multistate transition model analysis of adults in...

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) products continue to evolve, and so ongoing analysis of transition rates over time is important for tracking real-world associations between ENDS and cigarette use and for providing the information necessary to project future public health outcomes.

Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study Waves 6-7 (2021-2022), we applied a Markov multistate transition model to estimate transition rates for initiation and cessation of each product. We estimated one-year transition probabilities for each transition. These results were compared to estimated rates and probabilities in Waves 1-6 (2014-2021).

The fraction adopting ENDS use in 2021-22 among those who had never previously established tobacco product use, those not currently using tobacco products, and those currently smoking cigarettes increased to 0.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.4, 0.6%), 2.7% (95% CI: 2.3, 3.2%), and 6.8% (95% CI: 6.1, 7.6%), respectively. These increases were driven by young adults (ages 18-24), with respective transition fractions of 2.7% (95% CI: 2.3, 3.2%), 23.6% (95% CI: 20.2, 27.0%), and 19.2% (95% CI: 14.0, 24.5%). The fraction of adults who transitioned from dual cigarette and ENDS use to cigarette-only use remained around 25% (26.2% [95% CI: 21.7, 30.7%]), while the fraction who transitioned to ENDS-only use increased to 24.2% (95%CI: 20.5, 27.9%). The increase in the dual to ENDS-only use transition was also driven by young adults (34.4% [95% CI: 26.2, 42.6%]) and adults ages 25-34 (29.4% [95% CI: 23.1, 35.7%]).

Public health efforts are needed to promote cigarette cessation among older adults, specifically.