A study on predictive nomogram for abdominal wall hernia in peritoneal dialysis patients based on multicenter data

Area of Science:

• Nephrology
• Surgical Outcomes
• Medical Informatics

Background:

• Abdominal wall hernias are a common complication in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD).
• Accurate risk prediction is crucial for timely intervention and management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and externally validate a predictive nomogram for abdominal wall hernia risk in ESRD patients on PD.
• To identify key clinical indicators associated with hernia development.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 480 ESRD patients on PD was divided into training (n=300) and validation (n=180) groups.
• Logistic regression analyses identified independent risk factors: PD vintage, age, and serum albumin.
• A nomogram was constructed and validated using AUC, calibration plots, and DCA.

Main Results:

• PD vintage, age, and serum albumin were significant independent predictors of hernia development.
• The nomogram demonstrated good predictive accuracy with AUCs of 0.823 (training) and 0.747 (validation).
• Risk stratification identified significant differences in hernia-free survival between risk groups.

Conclusions:

• A validated nomogram accurately predicts abdominal wall hernia risk in ESRD patients on PD.
• This tool can aid clinicians in assessing and managing hernia risk.