Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice

Emissions scenarios generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important element in the IPCC's relevance for climate action, but little attention has been given to how scenarios are used in practice. This article draws on insights from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to develop a framework for analysing scenario use and provides an exploratory case study of scenario users in government and energy-related companies in Norway. We find that scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios' strengths, limitations and uncertainties. Institutional ties, trust, and alignment in problem definition play important roles when organisations choose which scenarios to work with, and the political implications of scenario choice are frequently acknowledged. We conclude that more attention should be paid to the actual use of scenarios in discussions about the IPCC's policy relevance.