Leveraging cloud-based SAR remote sensing and GNOME numerical simulation for modeling oil spill trajectory in the...

On December 15, 2024, a severe storm in the southern Kerch Strait led to the sinking of the Russian tanker Volgoneft-212 and the grounding of Volgoneft-239, resulting in a catastrophic oil spill into the marine ecosystem. The present investigation utilizes the GNOME model to examine the role of wind, currents, diffusion, seawater temperature, and salinity in determining the trajectory and fate of the oil spill at Kerch Strait and the adjoining Black Sea. The spill was simulated as a continuous release of 5000 tons of oil over five days at the southern mouth of the Kerch Strait. A 15-day model simulation revealed a net southwestward displacement of 280.2 km, which was subsequently corroborated by satellite-derived oil slick patterns. A sensitivity experiment, by selectively activating individual forcing parameters, illustrated their unique contributions: diffusion alone produced symmetric radial spreading, currents alone induced advective transport with cyclonic eddy retention and downstream steering, while winds alone governed south-southwest advection, ultimately resulting in a southeastward shift. The final mass balance demonstrated that 69.4 % of the oil remained afloat, 19.3 % deposited along shorelines, and 11.3 % evaporated, indicating a strong degree of surface persistence with natural dispersion and sedimentation. Subsequent experiments highlighted that elevated seawater temperature considerably reduced floating and beached oil while enhancing natural dispersion and sedimentation, with minimal effect on evaporation, whereas salinity exerted minor impacts. Therefore, this study underscored the critical influence of environmental parameters on oil weathering, highlighting the necessity to integrate real-time monitoring and predictive modeling for effective oil spill response and safeguarding marine ecosystems.