KineticGP: A computational framework for genomic prediction of leaf photosynthetic traits

Crop traits are the integrated outcome of genetic variation, environmental conditions, and their complex interactions, rendering accurate prediction from genetic markers alone a persistent challenge. Here, we present KineticGP, a computational framework that combines genomic prediction with genotype-specific kinetic models of C₄ photosynthesis to make predictions of leaf photosynthetic traits across genotypes from a multiple-parent advanced generation intercross maize population. Using genetic markers and gas exchange measurements from three field seasons, we show that KineticGP outperforms a baseline genomic prediction model in predicting the photosynthetic rate at saturating light by 86% for unseen genotypes across two seen seasons. In addition, KineticGP enabled us to survey genetic variability in enzyme kinetic parameters, which can be used to identify targets for the improvement of photosynthesis. This approach paves the way for interrogating and integrating the dynamic interactions between genotype and environment to improve the accuracy of photosynthetic trait predictions.