Challenging the Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model with...

To investigate the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution, a central issue in sustainable development, this paper reassesses the applicability of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in China using provincial panel data covering the period 1997-2021. We develop a dependence-robust dynamic panel threshold model that captures nonlinear regime shifts, cross-sectional dependence, and the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions. Across per capita, total, and growth-based specifications, the results consistently show that the EKC does not hold in China once cross-sectional dependence is properly addressed. Instead, carbon emissions and economic growth exhibit a clear decoupling pattern, indicating that China retains substantial potential to achieve economic growth and carbon reduction simultaneously. The proposed model enhances EKC analysis by accounting for common shocks and interprovincial linkages often ignored in previous studies, preventing spurious nonlinearities and artificial turning points. The findings show that China's carbon emissions are mainly driven by structural and energy-use factors rather than economic development levels, suggesting that carbon reduction can be pursued without compromising economic growth. These results provide a more accurate empirical basis for designing energy-efficiency strategies, accelerating clean energy deployment, and strengthening coordinated regional carbon governance.