Evaluating the present and future distribution of an endemic oak species (Quercus afares) under climate change in Algeria

Climate change poses a severe long-term threat to endemic species. Ecologists must have a comprehensive understanding of habitat suitability and environmental variables that control their distribution to minimize biodiversity loss and improve conservation strategies effectively. The MaxEnt model is commonly applied to predict species distribution based on occurrence data and environmental variables. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endemic Quercus afares in Algeria, evaluated shifts in its range under climate change scenarios and identified the key ecological factors determining its distribution. The results showed that the Area Under the Curve (AUC = 0.992) indicated excellent performance of our MaxEnt model. The major environmental predictor for Quercus afares was the Martonne aridity index (Idm), which had the most useful information. Future scenarios indicate that the highly suitable habitat for Quercus afares is expected to range between 0.2% and 0.14%. The average elevation of suitable habitat changes according to each climate scenario, ranging from 1,086.5 to 1,276.5 m. The highly suitable habitat shifts towards the northeast in most future climate scenarios. Our findings represent a decision support tool and contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures of Quercus afares in Algeria.