Dynamic assessment of the ecological value of cultivated land based on the Gompertz curve model: A case study of Lezhi County, China

  • 0School of Agricultural and Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China.

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Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study developed a dynamic model to assess cultivated land

Area Of Science

  • Ecological Economics
  • Environmental Science
  • Agricultural Economics

Background

  • Ecological compensation mechanisms require dynamic evaluation of cultivated land's ecological value (EVCL).
  • Existing models may lack the precision to capture the evolving nature of EVCL.
  • Assessing EVCL is crucial for effective environmental policy and resource management.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To construct and validate a dynamic assessment model for EVCL using the Gompertz curve.
  • To examine the influence of evolving ecological compensation policies on EVCL.
  • To provide a methodological framework for regional EVCL assessment and policy evaluation.

Main Methods

  • Development of a dynamic EVCL assessment model based on the Gompertz curve.
  • Quantification of key ecosystem services (agricultural supply, water conservation, carbon sequestration, soil conservation) using the functional value method.
  • Logarithmic linearization for Gompertz equation parameter estimation, utilizing GDP growth rate and comparing with the Pearl curve (R², RMSE).

Main Results

  • The Gompertz model demonstrated superior fitting stability and correction capacity compared to the Pearl curve.
  • Estimated EVCL per hectare reached CNY 704,250 in 2022 (constant 1990 prices).
  • EVCL exhibits an asymmetric S-shaped growth trajectory, correlating with policy evolution and institutional maturity.

Conclusions

  • The Gompertz curve model effectively captures the dynamic EVCL and its response to policy changes.
  • The study provides a robust method for estimating EVCL from 1979 to 2052.
  • Findings offer valuable insights for refining ecological compensation policies and management strategies.