Dynamic assessment of the ecological value of cultivated land based on the Gompertz curve model: A case study of Lezhi County, China
- Li Yuan 1, Hongjie Chen 1, Jing Xu 2, Haidong Wang 3
- Li Yuan 1, Hongjie Chen 1, Jing Xu 2
- 1School of Agricultural and Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China.
- 2Belt and Road Economic Research Institute, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China.
- 3School of Statistics and Data Science, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China.
- 0School of Agricultural and Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China.
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.This study developed a dynamic model to assess cultivated land
Area Of Science
- Ecological Economics
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Economics
Background
- Ecological compensation mechanisms require dynamic evaluation of cultivated land's ecological value (EVCL).
- Existing models may lack the precision to capture the evolving nature of EVCL.
- Assessing EVCL is crucial for effective environmental policy and resource management.
Purpose Of The Study
- To construct and validate a dynamic assessment model for EVCL using the Gompertz curve.
- To examine the influence of evolving ecological compensation policies on EVCL.
- To provide a methodological framework for regional EVCL assessment and policy evaluation.
Main Methods
- Development of a dynamic EVCL assessment model based on the Gompertz curve.
- Quantification of key ecosystem services (agricultural supply, water conservation, carbon sequestration, soil conservation) using the functional value method.
- Logarithmic linearization for Gompertz equation parameter estimation, utilizing GDP growth rate and comparing with the Pearl curve (R², RMSE).
Main Results
- The Gompertz model demonstrated superior fitting stability and correction capacity compared to the Pearl curve.
- Estimated EVCL per hectare reached CNY 704,250 in 2022 (constant 1990 prices).
- EVCL exhibits an asymmetric S-shaped growth trajectory, correlating with policy evolution and institutional maturity.
Conclusions
- The Gompertz curve model effectively captures the dynamic EVCL and its response to policy changes.
- The study provides a robust method for estimating EVCL from 1979 to 2052.
- Findings offer valuable insights for refining ecological compensation policies and management strategies.
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