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A new automatic forecasting method based on explainable deep dendritic artificial neural network.

Eren Bas1, Erol Egrioglu2

  • 1Faculty of Arts and Science, Department of Data Science and Analytics, Giresun University, Giresun, Turkey.

Scientific Reports
|December 30, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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This study introduces automated tests for deep dendritic recurrent neural networks, enhancing forecasting accuracy. A novel automated method based on these tests improves forecasting performance for time series data.

Area of Science:

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Machine Learning
  • Time Series Analysis

Background:

  • Automated forecasting methods are crucial for practitioners, reducing subjective decisions in model selection and data preprocessing.
  • Existing automated methods often rely on complex model/variable selection and hypothesis testing.
  • Explainability in deep learning models for forecasting remains a significant challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose input significance and model validity tests for deep dendritic recurrent neural networks (DDRNNs) within an explainability framework.
  • To develop a novel automated forecasting method for DDRNNs leveraging these proposed tests.
  • To evaluate the forecasting performance of the new method against established techniques using benchmark datasets.

Main Methods:

Keywords:
Automatic forecasting methodsDeep neural networksDifferential evolution algorithmForecastingRecurrent neural networks

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  • Development of statistical tests to assess the significance of inputs to DDRNNs.
  • Implementation of model validity tests to ensure the reliability of DDRNN forecasts.
  • Creation of an automated forecasting pipeline for DDRNNs incorporating the developed tests.
  • Comparative analysis using M3 and M4 competition time series datasets.

Main Results:

  • The proposed input significance and model validity tests demonstrate effectiveness in evaluating DDRNN components.
  • The novel automated forecasting method shows competitive or superior performance compared to existing methods on M3 and M4 datasets.
  • The developed tests contribute to the explainability of DDRNNs in time series forecasting.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed tests enhance the interpretability and reliability of deep dendritic recurrent neural networks for forecasting.
  • The new automated method offers a robust and data-driven approach to time series forecasting with DDRNNs.
  • This work advances the field of automated forecasting by integrating explainability into deep learning models.