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Holistic Facial Composite Creation and Subsequent Video Line-up Eyewitness Identification Paradigm

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Disproportion and Decision: Ethnic Minority Overrepresentation and Police Risk Assessment in Missing Persons Cases.

Fiona Gabbert¹, Adrian J Scott¹, Karen Shalev²

¹School of Mind, Body and Society, Goldsmiths, University of London, London SE14 6NW, UK.

Behavioral Sciences (Basel, Switzerland)

|December 30, 2025

Summary

Black individuals are disproportionately represented in missing persons cases. Police risk assessments may be indirectly influenced by ethnicity, impacting investigative prioritization and equity.

Keywords:

cultural competence disproportionality ethnicity investigative bias missing persons policing risk assessment

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Area of Science:

Forensic Science
Criminology
Sociology

Background:

Disproportionality in missing persons cases raises concerns about forensic and legal decision-making.
Black individuals are overrepresented in missing persons statistics in the UK compared to their population share.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze how case characteristics and ethnicity influence risk assessments in missing persons cases.
To investigate potential ethnic disparities in police decision-making and investigative prioritization.

Main Methods:

Analysis of 18,266 missing persons cases from nine police forces in England and Wales.
Three-stage analysis: descriptive profiling, statistical comparison across ethnic groups, and predictive modeling.
Controlled for demographic, contextual, and risk-related factors to assess ethnicity's independent impact.

Main Results:

Ethnicity did not independently predict risk classification when other characteristics were controlled.
Characteristics associated with Black missing persons (e.g., youth, care orders) were linked to lower risk classifications.
Characteristics associated with White missing persons (e.g., mental health, harm risks) predicted higher risk classifications.

Conclusions:

Police decision-making in missing persons cases may be indirectly influenced by ethnicity through associated characteristics.
Concerns exist regarding equity in risk assessment and investigative prioritization for minority groups.
Need for culturally informed, evidence-based frameworks in missing persons investigations to ensure just and accurate policing.