Linking Thermal Ecology and Agricultural Risk: Generational Potential of Diceraeus melacanthus in Southern and...

Diceraeus melacanthus (Dallas, 1851) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) has become a key pest in Brazilian maize production, particularly during seedling establishment. This study estimated its lower and upper developmental thresholds (Tb and Tsup), thermal constant (K), and degree-day requirements, and used these parameters to model the potential annual generations (PAG) across the Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, and São Paulo states. Biological parameters were calculated from controlled laboratory assays, and historical meteorological datasets were combined with regression models and spatial analyses to generate phenology maps of PAG. Results indicated marked regional differences: Mato Grosso do Sul presented the highest potential, averaging eleven generations per year, São Paulo showed intermediate values with nine generations, and Paraná exhibited the lowest, with approximately seven generations annually. Latitude exerted the strongest influence on PAG, while altitude contributed the least. These findings are consistent with the known adaptability of D. melacanthus to warmer climates and highlight its capacity to persist in no-tillage soybean-maize systems and areas with volunteer plants. The results provide a predictive framework for assessing population risk and may support decision-making in integrated pest management. Further studies on host range, phenology, and distribution are required to anticipate future expansions across South America.