Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jan 7, 2026
Author Spotlight: Advancing Early Detection and Treatment of Gastrointestinal Tumors
Published on: February 16, 2024
Development and validation of an interpretable predictive model for short-term rebleeding after endoscopic hemostasis
Run-Hua Li1, Ying Zhu2, Wen Xu3
1Department of Gastroenterology, Southern Medical University (Shenzhen School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University), Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
Background:
Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is a common, life-threatening disorder. Although endoscopic therapy achieves hemostasis, short-term rebleeding remains frequent, increasing mortality and healthcare burden. Existing tools lack accuracy and interpretability. This study aimed to develop and validate an interpretable machine learning (ML) model to predict rebleeding risk after initial therapy in PUB.
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed patients with Forrest Ia-IIb PUB undergoing emergency hemostasis at Shenzhen Hospital, Southern Medical University (June 2019-September 2023). Among 204 patients, 25 (12.25%) rebled. Nineteen clinical and laboratory features were collected, and 11 ML algorithms were evaluated. Data were split 7:3 into training and testing sets. Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, and Youden index. The best model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).
Results:
Categorical boosting (CATBoost) achieved the best performance (AUC 0.980 training; 0.817 testing). Calibration confirmed stability. SHAP identified Rockall score, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), AIMS65 score, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, and lesion location (particularly the descending duodenum) as the most important predictors. A web-based calculator was developed for individualized risk estimation.
Conclusion:
We established and validated an interpretable CATBoost model using routine variables to predict short-term rebleeding in PUB. This tool may aid early identification of high-risk patients and support individualized management strategies.
Trial Registration:
This study was registered at https://www.chictr.org.cn/ with the registration number ChiCTR2300079290.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
01:28Peptic Ulcer Disease III: Clinical Manifestations and Diagnostic Studies
Few clinical manifestations differentiate gastric ulcers from duodenal ulcers. Distinctions in the location, timing, and pain relief are crucial for healthcare providers in differentiating between gastric and duodenal ulcers during clinical assessments.
01:30Peptic Ulcer Disease I: Introduction
An acute ulcer, marked by superficial erosion and minimal inflammation, swiftly resolves upon identifying and addressing the underlying cause. In contrast, a chronic ulcer persists, potentially eroding through the muscular wall and forming fibrous tissue.
Peptic ulcers can also be...
01:26Peptic Ulcer Disease IV: Management
The therapeutic approach involves ensuring adequate rest, implementing drug therapy, promoting smoking cessation, making dietary modifications, and emphasizing long-term follow-up care.
Pharmacological management
The prevailing therapy for peptic ulcers involves a combination of managing the patient's current...