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Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination in the United States
Mathew V Kiang1, Kate M Bubar, Yvonne Maldonado
1Department of Epidemiology and Population Health (M.V.K., Y.M.), Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine (K.M.B., N.C.L.), Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Y.M.); Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Department of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology and Microbiology, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston (P.J.H.); Department of Biology, Baylor University, Waco (P.J.H.); James A. Baker III Institute of Public Policy, Rice University, Houston (P.J.H.); and Hagler Institute for Advanced Study and Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, College Station (P.J.H.), TX.
Abstract:
(Abstracted from JAMA 2025;333(24):2176-2187) The development of childhood vaccine protocols has led to the elimination of many infectious diseases from the United States, including measles, rubella, diphtheria, and polio, by maintaining herd immunity. In recent years, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination rates have declined due to policy changes, misinformation, distrust, and broader societal shifts.
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