MicroRNA Signatures and Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiotoxicity in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer Patients

Background: HER2-positive breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy and targeted therapy (including anthracyclines and trastuzumab) face an elevated risk of cardiotoxicity, which can lead to long-term cardiovascular complications. Identifying predictive biomarkers is essential for early intervention. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs), known regulators of gene expression and cardiovascular function, have emerged as potential indicators of cardiotoxicity. This study aims to evaluate the differential expression of circulating miRNAs in HER2-positive breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy and to assess their prognostic ability for therapy-induced cardiotoxicity using machine learning models. Methods: Forty-seven patients were assessed for cardiac toxicity at baseline and every 3 months, up to 15 months. Blood samples were collected at baseline. MiRNA expression profiling for 84 microRNAs was performed using the miRCURY LNA miRNA PCR Panel. Differential expression was calculated via the 2^-∆∆Ct method. The five most upregulated and five most downregulated miRNAs were further assessed using univariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Five machine learning models (Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) were developed to classify cardiotoxicity based on miRNA expression. Results: Forty-five miRNAs showed significant differential expression between cardiac toxic and non-toxic groups. ROC analysis identified hsa-miR-155-5p (AUC 0.76, p = 0.006) and hsa-miR-124-3p (AUC 0.75, p = 0.007) as the strongest predictors. kNN, SVM, and RF models demonstrated high prognostic accuracy. The decision tree model identified hsa-miR-17-5p and hsa-miR-185-5p as key classifiers. SVM and RF highlighted additional miRNAs associated with cardiotoxicity (SVM: hsa-miR-143-3p, hsa-miR-133b, hsa-miR-145-5p, hsa-miR-185-5p, hsa-miR-199a-5p, RF: hsa-miR-185-5p, hsa-miR-145-5p, hsa-miR-17-5p, hsa-miR-144-3p, and hsa-miR-133a-3p). Performance metrics revealed that SVM, kNN, and RF models outperformed the decision tree in overall prognostic accuracy. Pathway enrichment analysis of top-ranked miRNAs demonstrated significant involvement in apoptosis, p53, MAPK, and focal adhesion pathways, all known to be implicated in chemotherapy-induced cardiac stress and remodeling. Conclusions: Circulating miRNAs show promise as biomarkers for predicting cardiotoxicity in breast cancer patients. Machine learning approaches may enhance miRNA-based risk stratification, enabling personalized monitoring and early cardioprotective interventions.