On Multi-Parameter Optimization and Proactive Reliability in 5G and Beyond Cellular Networks

Ultra-dense heterogeneous cellular networks in 6G and beyond face an escalating vulnerability to cell outages stemming from complex issues like parameter misconfigurations, hidden conflicts among Autonomous Network Functions (ANFs), multivendor incompatibility, and software/hardware failures. While ANF-based automated fault detection is a core capability for next-generation networks, existing solutions are predominantly reactive, identifying faults only after reliability is compromised. To overcome this critical limitation and maintain high service quality, a proactive fault prediction capability is essential. We introduce a novel Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC)-based stochastic framework designed to model network reliability dynamics. This framework forecasts the transition of a cell from normal operation to suboptimal or degraded states, offering a crucial shift from reactive to proactive fault management. Our model rigorously quantifies the effects of fault arrivals, estimates the fraction of time the network remains degraded, and, uniquely, identifies sensitive parameters whose misconfigurations pose the most significant threat to performance. Numerical evaluations demonstrate the model's high applicability in accurately predicting both the timing and probable causes of faults. By enabling true anticipation and mitigation, this framework is a key enabler for significantly reducing the cell outage time and enhancing the reliability and resilience of next-generation wireless networks.