Burden of prostate cancer in China during 1990-2021 and the projections through 2050

To provide the most up-to-date data on the burden of prostate cancer (PC) in China and the projections through 2050.

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 2021, we investigated the characteristics of PC burden in China, including temporal trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-period-cohort models, frontier analysis, decomposition analysis and prediction models were used for data analyze.

In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) reached 9.34, 59.86, 4.89, and 76.97 (per 100 000), respectively. The ASIR and ASPR in 2021 increased by 87.17 % and 209.03 %, respectively, compared with 1990, while the ASMR and ASDR remained stable. The relative risk (RR) of PC increases with age, with the highest risk of incidence at 85-89 years. By 2050, the projected age-standardized rate for incidence and mortality are expected to reach 20.85 and 5.11 per 100,000, respectively. Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging and epidemiological shifts primarily drove the increasing PC burden in China.

We found that the burden of PC in China is rapidly rising, with an increasing proportion of young patients, posing a serious threat to men's health in China currently and also in 2050. Our findings suggest strengthening early screening programs and prevention strategies for high-risk groups of PC in China.