Risk factors for lateral cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma and to develop and validate a...

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Medical Imaging
• Surgical Pathology

Background:

• Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common type of thyroid cancer.
• Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is a significant prognostic factor in PTC.
• Accurate prediction of LLNM is crucial for effective treatment planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent risk factors for LLNM in PTC.
• To develop and validate clinical prediction models for LLNM.
• To assess the clinical utility of these predictive models.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 222 PTC patients with suspected LLNM.
• Logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of LLNM.
• Development of preoperative and postoperative nomogram models.
• Model validation using AUC, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Main Results:

• Preoperative predictors of LLNM include age, tumor size on ultrasound, lymph node echogenicity, and vascularity.
• Postoperative predictors include age, multifocality, pathological tumor size, and central lymph node metastasis.
• Preoperative and postoperative models demonstrated good predictive accuracy with AUCs ranging from 0.719 to 0.885.

Conclusions:

• Identified significant risk factors for LLNM in PTC.
• Developed validated nomogram models for predicting LLNM.
• Models show high predictive accuracy and clinical utility, outperforming standard strategies.