Global Suitability Areas of Two Rice Pests, Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera, and Their Management...

Rice is a staple food crop for over half of the global population; however, it is being increasingly threatened by the planthopper species Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae). Effective management of these pests is crucial for maintaining stable rice production, which requires an understanding of their geographical distribution. Unfortunately, previous studies have generally focused on limited geographic and environmental scopes. Therefore, in this study, a Maxent model was employed to predict the global suitability areas of both pests under current and future conditions (2050s and 2070s) using occurrence records and a broad range of environmental variables. Model results revealed that precipitation- and temperature-related factors are the primary drivers of both pests' distribution. Asia, particularly China, was predicted to remain the most suitable region for them now and in the future, underscoring the urgency of reinforcing pest management efforts in these regions. Owing to climate change, the suitability areas for the two pests are expected to expand and shift northward, with the most pronounced increase under the 2070s SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, this expansion of high suitability areas suggests a growing risk of outbreaks. By identifying regions at risk of infestation and quantifying the extent of suitable habitat expansion, our findings provide insights for developing targeted, region-specific pest management strategies for N. lugens and S. furcifera, to minimize food and economic losses.