Variability, Drivers, and Utility of Genetic Diversity-Area Relationships in Terrestrial Vertebrates

Maintaining genetic diversity within and among populations is critical for conservation and a prominent goal of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, direct estimates of genetic diversity are unavailable for most species, and time and resources are insufficient to fill these substantial data gaps and meet conservation target timelines. We evaluated a proxy-based prediction of genetic diversity loss, the Genetic Diversity Area Relationship (GDAR), which describes relationships between genetic diversity and the geographic area occupied by a species. We estimated differences in three metrics of genetic diversity relative to sample area using 55 previously published datasets from 51 species. GDARs were highly variable across species and strongly dependent on population structure, with no clear differences across vertebrate classes. Traits correlated with population structure and study area explained 35%-45% of the variation in GDARs. Across genetic diversity metrics, prediction accuracy was highest for GDARs estimated from allele count compared to allelic richness and gene diversity. Our findings suggest there are opportunities for refining taxon-specific GDARs to predict genetic diversity loss following area loss in the absence of genetic data.