Socioeconomic and climatic factors influencing desertification in Saudi Arabia through an ARDL approach

In this study, based on the sample covering 1990-2023, we use ARDL methods to test potential driving forces of Desertification (DS), including key socioeconomic and climatic determinants in Saudi Arabia: renewable energy consumption (RE) , economic growth (EG) , CO₂ emissions(CO2E), temperature anomaly(TA) and vegetation index(VI). To address the lack of time-series-integrated data studies in Saudi Arabia, this article uses ARDL and VECM models to capture short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium. The findings indicate that a 1% increase in renewable energy results in an average reduction of 0.1003% in desertification . In contrast, improvements in the vegetation index have been more effective and could reduce desertification by up to 8.7%.Conversely, improved economic growth and increased CO2 emissions significantly aggravate land degradation. These results illustrate the need to reconcile Vision 2030's development aims with environmental protection. Recommendations on policy: Increase the proportion of renewable energy to 50% of total energy consumption by 2030; expand afforestation to restore 10% of degraded land per year; work toward universal environmental protection for major development projects at a rate commensurate with the scale and potential impact. .