Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Preoperative Pre-Frailty in Elderly Patients with Gastric Cancer

Area of Science:

• Geriatric Oncology
• Surgical Oncology
• Prehabilitation

Background:

• Postoperative complications and chemotherapy side effects can reduce treatment efficacy in elderly cancer patients.
• Pre-frailty is a significant concern, closely linked to poorer outcomes in this demographic.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the prevalence of preoperative pre-frailty in elderly gastric cancer patients.
• To identify factors influencing pre-frailty.
• To assess its predictive value and develop a risk prediction model.

Main Methods:

• Recruited 317 elderly gastric cancer patients.
• Utilized Fried Frailty Phenotype, Health Literacy Scale, and Quality of Life Instruments.
• Employed logistic regression and ROC curve analysis, constructing a Nomogram model in RStudio.

Main Results:

• 177 patients (53.4%) were pre-frail.
• Independent factors included age, comorbidity, hemoglobin, malnutrition risk, depression, and GI symptoms (P<0.05).
• The risk prediction model showed high accuracy (AUC=0.986).

Conclusions:

• Preoperative pre-frailty is highly prevalent in elderly gastric cancer patients.
• Key factors for clinicians to monitor include age, comorbidities, hemoglobin levels, malnutrition risk, mental health, and GI symptoms.
• The developed risk prediction model offers strong predictive accuracy and discriminative ability.