Predicting infectious etiology and severity in hospitalized pediatric pneumonia using blood cytokine biomarkers

Alexis M Duray1, Benjamin Lee1, Robert N Abood1

  • 1Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States.

Frontiers in Pediatrics
|January 5, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Cytokine levels in children with pneumonia can predict disease severity and type. Specific cytokines like CHI3L1 and IL-6 help differentiate viral from bacterial pneumonia and forecast outcomes.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Infectious Diseases
  • Immunology
  • Biomarker Discovery

Background:

  • Lower respiratory infections pose a significant global health burden in children, contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality.
  • Understanding the host immune response is crucial for predicting disease progression and outcomes in pediatric pneumonia.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the predictive value of plasma cytokine levels at hospital admission for disease etiology and severity in pediatric lower respiratory infections.
  • To identify specific cytokine profiles associated with different viral pathogens and disease severity outcomes, including hospitalization duration, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and hypoxemia.

Main Methods:

  • Plasma samples were collected from 159 pediatric inpatients diagnosed with lower respiratory infections.
  • Cytokine levels were quantified using multiplex analyses, with 59 cytokines assessed.
  • Logistic regression and machine learning models were employed to correlate cytokine concentrations with clinical outcomes such as prolonged hospitalization (≥5 days), ICU admission, and hypoxemia (SpO2 < 90%).

Main Results:

  • Human rhinovirus/enterovirus (hRV/EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza virus were the most common viral culprits.
  • Elevated levels of CHI3L1, IL-1Rα, IL-6, G-CSF, MCP-1, and MIP-1α were associated with severe pneumonia, irrespective of the causative agent.
  • Distinct cytokine patterns, including a type-2 immune response, predicted disease duration in RSV cases.
  • Specific cytokines like CHI3L1, pentraxin-3, osteopontin, and IL-20 correlated with severity across various etiologies.
  • IL-6, MMP-2, and LIGHT differentiated viral from community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).
  • In influenza, CHI3L1 and sTNFR1 predicted longer hospitalization and ICU admission; RSV severity correlated with MIP-1α, IL-26, G-CSF, and IFNβ.

Conclusions:

  • Plasma cytokine profiles exhibit heterogeneity in severe pediatric pneumonia, offering insights into distinct immune responses.
  • Identified cytokine groupings can potentially distinguish between viral and non-viral pneumonia etiologies.
  • These findings may lead to improved diagnostic and prognostic tools for pediatric respiratory infections based on host immune markers.
Abstract