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A standardized indicator reveals sharper increases in heat related mortality in temperate zone cities worldwide
Ying Liang1, Xuan Wang2, Lei Ma3
1State Key Laboratory of Space Information System and Integrated Application, Beijing, 100095, China.
Abstract:
Global warming is intensifying heat risks globally, yet understanding of these rising risks on a global scale remains limited. We introduce a standardized heat-sensitivity indicator (ΔRR)-the change in relative risk (RR) per 1 °C above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)-which enables like-for-like comparisons across heterogeneous city studies. Using ΔRR, we quantify how sensitively heat-related mortality responds to incremental warming rather than only to extremes. This study reveals that over a latitude of around 40°N, development inequality disrupts the patterns of heat risk variability, and high-risk cities primarily cluster in ranges with temperatures between 10 °C and 22 °C. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more focus on cities in temperate zones. Our results also position ΔRR as a transferable metric for global surveillance, comparison, and planning of heat-health adaptation.
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