Gut microbiome as a predictor for positive youth development transition from childhood to early adolescence: a cohort...

The gut microbiome is increasingly implicated in childhood mental health and may influence positive youth development (PYD). This study aims to characterize PYD transition patterns from childhood to adolescence and explore the predictive value of the gut microbiome.

This cohort study used two waves of data from the Chinese Adolescent Cohort study, including children aged 8-11 years at Wave 1, from Sichuan, Guizhou, and Chongqing provinces. PYD was assessed at both time points, and latent transition analysis identified changes over the 3-year follow-up period. Baseline stool samples were analyzed using 16 s rRNA sequencing. A light gradient boosting machine model was developed to link gut microbiota with PYD transition type in a training set (70%, n = 461), and validated with multinominal logistic analysis within a test set (30%, n = 200). Linear regression models were performed to assess dietary modifications on the gut microbiome.

Three PYD transition profiles were identified: downgraded (declining to a lower pattern), promoted (advancing to a higher pattern), and stable development type (remaining in the same pattern). Fifteen microbial genera were identified as predictors of PYD transitions, and children with higher abundance of these taxa were more likely to transition to a stable or promoted profile rather than a downgraded profile (odds ratio ranging from 2.03 to 5.45). This predictive model demonstrated excellent performance, with an area under the curve of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.93). The microbiome-PYD transition association was more pronounced in children in earlier stages of puberty. Furthermore, a diet high in fruits, vegetables, and soybeans was positively linked with PYD stable or promoted transition type.

The gut microbiome presents predictive value in PYD transition from childhood to adolescence. Targeting these microbial taxa may inform future health promotion programs to optimize child development, particularly during the critical pubertal transition.