Risks encountered when not adjusting for diurnal variation and food effect in QTcF analysis based on phase I data

Phase I single and multiple ascending dose studies are more and more often used to evaluate QT liability of new drugs. However, these studies are not primarily tailored to concentration-QT analysis and to control or document influential factors such as meal intake. In addition, sampling times may vary over the day for operational reasons. This simulation analysis evaluates the reliability of the standard pre-specified linear model (PLM) proposed by a publication of Garnett et al. and an adjusted PLM accounting for food effect and clock time. The QTcF-time profile of a drug with a mild QT-liability (upper bound of the 90% confidence interval close to the 10 ms threshold) resulting from a well-controlled study was simulated 1000 times and evaluated with the unadjusted PLM (Scenario A, negative rate: 20.8%). Compared to suboptimal study designs with uncontrolled and unbalanced (i.e., differences between active treatment and placebo) differences in meal intake and dosing/sampling times, the unadjusted PLM led to an inflated negative rate (≤ 50%), while the adjusted PLM was able to correct for the imbalances resulting in similar negative rates as the reference scenario or lower, i.e., being more conservative. In conclusion, good documentation in Phase I trials and adjusting for known influential factors can help to analyze QT effects reliably and waive with relevance QT/QTc studies.