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Informing atmospheric pollution hotspots and exposure risks under climate change using machine learning: Evidence

Ning Hao1, Yuanyuan Zhao1, Zhengyang Deng1

  • 1Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, PR China; Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, PR China; College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, PR China.

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|January 6, 2026
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Summary

Climate change exacerbates air pollution in China, increasing all-cause deaths. Extreme weather events amplify these risks, highlighting the urgent need for mitigation strategies to combat air pollution and its health impacts.

Keywords:
All-cause MortalityCausal InferenceClimate Change and ExtremesDeep Learning

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Public Health
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Air pollution caused over one million annual deaths in China between 2013-2022.
  • Climate change is projected to worsen air pollution exposure and associated mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify changes in air pollutant concentrations (CO, NO2, O3, SO2, PM2.5, PM10) under climate change.
  • To assess the causal impacts of these pollutants on all-cause deaths (ACD) in China.
  • To investigate the role of climatic indicators in regulating air pollution and health outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Time series and causal inference models were applied to data from 2843 regions.
  • Analysis quantified changes in extreme temperature, drought, and precipitation days.
  • Statistical models assessed the relationship between pollutant concentrations and ACD.

Main Results:

  • Extreme high temperatures and drought increased annually, while extreme precipitation and low temperatures decreased.
  • Ozone (O3) showed a national upward trend; other pollutants increased regionally.
  • All pollutants except SO2 demonstrated a positive causal link with ACD, with significant mortality impacts.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change and extreme climate events are increasing the risk of severe air pollution and associated deaths in China.
  • Co-exposure to pollutants and climatic factors amplify health effects, albeit with increased uncertainty.
  • Effective climate change mitigation is crucial to reduce air pollution-related mortality.