Carbon Mitigation through EIAs in China: Evidence, Mechanisms, and Policy Implications

There is growing concern over integrating carbon reduction objectives into environmental impact assessment (EIA). Drawing on multiple sources of statistical data (e.g., provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019 and from January 2018 to December 2023, etc.), this study employs econometric models to empirically examine the carbon reduction effects of China's EIA system and its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that EIA implementation is significantly associated with reductions in carbon emissions, and this conclusion remains robust across various tests. Mechanism analysis further reveals that EIA promotes local industrial upgrading, curbs the expansion of heavily polluting enterprises, enhances the green total factor productivity of industries, and facilitates the transition toward cleaner energy systems. Nevertheless, the synergistic effect between EIA activities and EIA management in achieving carbon reduction goals has not been effectively realized. Our findings contribute to the literature on environmental regulation by providing a quantitative framework for evaluating the carbon reduction effect of EIA and uncovering its mechanisms, while also offering evidence-based guidance for incorporating carbon assessment into the EIA system, optimizing EIA management, and designing differentiated policies to strengthen its role in driving the low-carbon transition.