Comparative predictive value of anthropometric indexes for hypertension: a 15-year prospective cohort study

Area of Science:

• Cardiovascular Health and Metabolic Syndrome
• Hypertension Risk Prediction
• Obesity Indices and Biomarkers

Background:

• Hypertension is a major cardiovascular risk factor.
• Novel adiposity indices, including cardiometabolic index (CMI), visceral adiposity index (VAI), dysfunctional adiposity index (DAI), and body adiposity index (BAI), have emerged.
• The comparative predictive value of these novel indices against traditional anthropometric measures for future hypertension risk is not fully established.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate whether novel adiposity indices (CMI, VAI, DAI, BAI) are superior predictors of future hypertension risk compared to conventional indicators (waist circumference [WC], body mass index [BMI], waist-to-height ratio [WHtR]).

Main Methods:

• Post hoc analysis of the MONICA protocol involving 597 patients.
• Data collected in 1992 with follow-up in 2007, including anthropometric and biochemical data.
• Multivariate Cox regression and ROC curve analysis were employed to assess predictive capabilities.

Main Results:

• CMI, VAI, DAI, BAI, WC, WHtR, and BMI were all significantly associated with hypertension incidence after adjusting for confounders.
• Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that traditional indicators showed higher predictive discriminatory power.
• Area Under the Curve (AUC) was highest for WC (0.649), followed closely by BMI (0.648) and WHtR (0.646), with CMI showing a lower AUC (0.603).

Conclusions:

• While CMI, VAI, DAI, and BAI can serve as independent predictors of hypertension, their discriminatory power is inferior to traditional measures.
• Conventional indicators like WC, BMI, and WHtR demonstrate superior ability in predicting the incidence of hypertension.
• Further research may explore combined use or specific populations where novel indices might offer additional value.