Integrating SARIMA Forecasting and Metabolomics to Decode Seasonal Chemotype Variation in Ayapana triplinervis

Although Ayapana triplinervis has been extensively investigated for its phytochemical composition and pharmacological potential, the effects of climatic variability on its essential oil metabolism remain poorly understood. This study bridges this knowledge gap by integrating climate forecasting with metabolomic profiling to elucidate seasonal and morphotype-specific chemical variations in the essential oils of A. triplinervis from the Brazilian Amazon. Precipitation patterns predicted by a SARIMA model delineated distinct hydrological phases, guiding four strategic sampling periods throughout 2024. Combined ¹H NMR, GC-MS, and multivariate analyses revealed pronounced seasonal metabolic shifts. Morphotype B maintained a chemically stable profile dominated by Thymohydroquinone Dimethyl Ether (THDE), whereas Morphotype A exhibited greater metabolic flexibility, shifting toward cis-caryophyllene during the transitional period between the Amazonian summer and winter. Variations in rainfall intensity modulated the balance between oxygenated phenylpropanoids and sesquiterpenes, indicating divergent adaptive strategies between morphotypes. This integrated forecast-metabolomics framework demonstrates how climatic predictability can be harnessed to anticipate metabolic adjustments in tropical aromatic species, offering new perspectives for chemotaxonomic differentiation, quality assurance, and sustainable utilization of Amazonian biodiversity.