Charting net-zero pathways for ASEAN's energy sector

Area of Science:

• Energy policy and modeling
• Climate change mitigation
• Sustainable development

Background:

• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is pivotal in the global energy transition.
• Achieving a low-carbon future necessitates effective decarbonization strategies within the region.
• Investigating these strategies is crucial for meeting climate goals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model ASEAN's energy system to meet net-zero emissions by 2050.
• To analyze pathways for decarbonizing electricity generation and hydrogen production.
• To evaluate the roles of renewables, battery storage, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and hydrogen.

Main Methods:

• Development of an hourly resolution capacity expansion model for ASEAN.
• Integration of electricity generation and hydrogen production systems.
• Scenario analysis of different decarbonization strategies.

Main Results:

• Two primary decarbonization pathways identified: accelerated renewables/battery storage or expanded CCS/hydrogen.
• Renewables could reach 95% and battery storage 28% by 2050 in one pathway.
• CCS and hydrogen could reach 46% and 15% respectively, with CCS crucial for hydrogen production.
• Grid connectivity impacts storage needs and flexibility requirements.

Conclusions:

• ASEAN has viable pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
• The choice between pathways involves trade-offs in technology deployment and system operation.
• Findings support policymakers in navigating decarbonization strategies and scenarios.